Reverse Handicapping, Bet On The Slowest Horses And Win A New Visual Aid
On any given day at the races there are hundreds or even thousands of people looking over their programs, charts, computers, and whatever else they use to pick the fastest horse in the race. Some people try to figure out if there is a horse faster than the favorite and if so they think they have an overlay and a good bet. Other people just try to qualify the favorite as the fastest horse and if it is they bet it.
The longshot players look for angles. Is there a reason why the fastest horse won’t win this race today? Several possibilities are that the horse is tailing off in form, is switching distance or surface, has the wrong running style for the race model, etc.
Other people look at the fastest horse and try to estimate its advantage. Is it 2 ticks faster than the next fastest? Is it a full second faster? How much of an edge makes it a dead certainty to win?
The focus is almost always the same. Locate the fastest horses and then compare them. If one is almost as fast as another but goes off at a much better price then it is a good bet. As we all know, the fastest horse doesn’t always win the race.
But did you ever ask yourself how often the slowest horse wins the race? How about the second slowest, or third slowest? I know you may have seen statistics that give the percentages of wins for each horse in the race based on the odds, relative speed ratings, etc. But did you ever really look at a race and ask yourself, “Who can’t win this race?”
Try reverse handicapping and you will look at races completely differently and begin to spot horses that really don’t figure and others that do. For instance, find the horse that you feel is the slowest and least likely to win in a race. Then find another runner who is next in the line of likely failures. Start at the bottom of the ladder rather than the top. Make a hierarchy of ability based on the handicapping factors that you usually use, such as speed, form, connections, pace, breeding, and any other factors you use.
As you go up the ladder, figuring that the worst horse is on the bottom rung, try to determine how far up the next horse is on the ladder, is it just one rung? Maybe it is two or three rungs above the worst horse. Then figure your next runner and so forth until you reach the top of that ladder.
You now have a visual picture of how your runners really shape up against each other and who has the advantage. Of course the next stop is the tote board. With the ladder in front of you as a fast and accurate visual aid look at the odds and compare your estimation of the runners chances with the odds. Write the odds beside the runners and give yourself enough time to make a decision and get a bet in (if you find a good one) before the race goes off. You may not bet on the worst horse very often, but there will be many times when you will bet a horse that isn’t at the top of the ladder but is offering great value and really stands out.
Combining the ladder with a good system of comparing horses is a great way to make a consistent profit on the races. For a comparison of winning systems that come with a full money back guarantee go to Proven Handicapping Systems
Select the method that works for you and use it with the ladder and by all means, be sure to start with the worse horse in the bunch. You will be amazed at how looking at the race from a different angle will change your whole perspective. Like they say, when you change the way you look at things the things you look at change.
Bill Peterson has been in horse racing for 50 years. “Horse Racing is in my blood.” Learn how an insider handicaps horse races by visiting Bill’s website Horse Racing Handicapping with Willie’s. To see the systems Bill uses, go to Bill’s Handicapping Store
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